Piecewise Trend Approximation: A Ratio-Based Time Series Representation

A time series representation, piecewise trend approximation (PTA), is proposed to improve efficiency of time series data mining in high dimensional large databases. PTA represents time series in concise form while retaining main trends in original time series; the dimensionality of original data is therefore reduced, and the key features are maintained. Different from the representations that based on original data space, PTA transforms original data space into the feature space of ratio between any two consecutive data points in original time series, of which sign and magnitude indicate changing direction and degree of local trend, respectively. Based on the ratio-based feature space, segmentation is performed such that each two conjoint segments have different trends, and then the piecewise segments are approximated by the ratios between the first and last points within the segments. To validate the proposed PTA, it is compared with classical time series representations PAA and APCA on two classical datasets by applying the commonly used K-NN classification algorithm. For ControlChart dataset, PTA outperforms them by 3.55% and 2.33% higher classification accuracy and 8.94% and 7.07% higher for Mixed-BagShapes dataset, respectively. It is indicated that the proposed PTA is effective for high dimensional time series data mining

Fuzzy Local Trend Transform based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model

A fuzzy local trend transform based fuzzy time series forecasting model is proposed to improve practicability and forecast accuracy by providing forecast of local trend variation based on the linguistic representation of ratios between any two consecutive points in original time series. Local trend variation satisfies a wide range of real applications for the forecast, the practicability is thereby improved. Specific values based on the forecasted local trend variations that reflect fluctuations in historical data are calculated accordingly to enhance the forecast accuracy. Compared with conventional models, the proposed model is validated by about 50% and 60% average improvement in terms of MLTE (mean local trend error) and RMSE (root mean squared error), respectively, for three typical forecasting applications. The MLTE results indicate that the proposed model outperforms conventional models significantly in reflecting fluctuations in historical data, and the improved RMSE results confirm an inherent enhancement of reflection of fluctuations in historical data and hence a better forecast accuracy. The potential applications of the proposed fuzzy local trend transform include time series clustering, classification, and indexing

Long-Term Structural State Trend Forecasting Based on an FFT–Informer Model

Machine learning has been widely applied in structural health monitoring. While most existing methods, which are limited to forecasting structural state evolution of large infrastructures. forecast the structural state in a step-by-step manner, extracting feature of structural state trends and the negative effects of data collection under abnormal conditions are big challenges. To address these issues, a long-term structural state trend forecasting method based on long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) with an improved Informer model integrated with Fast Fourier transform (FFT) is proposed, named the FFT–Informer model. In this method, by using FFT, structural state trend features are represented by extracting amplitude and phase of a certain period of data sequence. Structural state trend, a long sequence, can be forecasted in a one-forward operation by the Informer model that can achieve high inference speed and accuracy of prediction based on the Transformer model. Furthermore, a Hampel filter that filters the abnormal deviation of the data sequence is integrated into the Multi-head ProbSparse self-attention in the Informer model to improve forecasting accuracy by reducing the effect of abnormal data points. Experimental results on two classical data sets show that the FFT–Informer model achieves high and stable accuracy and outperforms the comparative models in forecasting accuracy. It indicates that this model can effectively forecast the long-term state trend change of a structure and is proposed to be applied to structural state trend forecasting and early damage warning

Deterministic Echo State Networks Based Stock Price Forecasting

Echo state networks (ESNs), as efficient and powerful computational models for approximating nonlinear dynamical systems, have been successfully applied in financial time series forecasting. Reservoir constructions in standard ESNs rely on trials and errors in real applications due to a series of randomized model building stages. A novel form of ESN with deterministically constructed reservoir is competitive with standard ESN by minimal complexity and possibility of optimizations for ESN specifications. In this paper, forecasting performances of deterministic ESNs are investigated in stock price prediction applications. The experiment results on two benchmark datasets (Shanghai Composite Index and S&P500) demonstrate that deterministic ESNs outperform standard ESN in both accuracy and efficiency, which indicate the prospect of deterministic ESNs for financial prediction

NIR-responsive molybdenum (Mo)-based nanoclusters enhance ROS scavenging for osteoarthritis therapy

Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the most prevalent musculoskeletal disorders globally, and treating OA remains a significant challenge. Currently, pharmacological treatments primarily aim to alleviate the OA symptoms associated with inflammation and pain, and no disease-modifying therapies are available to delay OA development and progression. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) play an essential role in OA development and progression, which are a promising target for curing OA. In this study, it was found that photothermal properties of near-infrared (NIR) irradiation enhanced the ROS scavenging activity of molybdenum-based polyoxometalate (POM) nanoclusters. Because of enhanced ROS scavenging, NIR-responsive POM nanoclusters were developed as novel excellent nano-antioxidants for OA protection. The results demonstrated that NIR-responsive POM exhibited outstanding antioxidant activity and superexcellent anti-inflammatory effects, which could effectively alleviate the clinical symptoms of OA mice, diminish inflammatory cytokines, reduce catabolic proteases, and mitigate the progression of OA. Meanwhile, the local treatment had no side effects on normal tissues. Thus, this study pioneered the application of POM for alleviating OA with expected safety and efficiency